A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
